🔑 Key Insights at a Glance

Population: Arizona grew from 7.15M (last census) to 7.58M in 2025, reflecting a robust annual growth rate of 1.3%, outpacing the national average.

Housing: Median home price is $451,100 (+4.6% YoY). Strong housing demand (+16.7% in sales) and increased inventory (+23.1%) indicate a balanced and active market.

Labor Market: Unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.8% in 2024. Although job creation continues, momentum is moderating. Arizona added 8,200 jobs in September alone.

Demographics: 21.3% of residents are under 18, while 19.3% are over 65 – highlighting a dual challenge of youth support and eldercare demand.

GDP Growth: Projected at 2.8% in 2025, slightly ahead of the U.S. average (2.7%), driven by population inflow and real estate expansion.

🧠 1. Population Growth & Density

Since the 2010 census (6.39M), Arizona’s population has surged, with most growth centered in urban metros like Phoenix and Tucson. Rural counties remain sparsely populated, yet essential for balancing statewide development.

Forecast: Sustained 1.3% growth expected annually through 2026. Long-term projections indicate stabilization post-2060, aligning with national population peaking trends.

🗺️ 2. County-Level Growth Leaders

County: Population: Growth Rate: Density (per sq mi)

Maricopa: 4.62M, 3.84%, 502

Pinal: 503K, 🚀 17.03%, 94

Pima: 1.07M, 2.26%, 116

Declining Counties: Apache (-2.08%), Cochise (-1.38%), Greenlee (-1.23%), and Coconino (-0.32%).

Highlight: Pinal County's 17% growth signals suburban expansion, while high-density urban centers like Maricopa (502/sq mi) dominate economically and demographically.

📈 3. Age Structure

Youth (Under 18): 21.3% – strong implication for K–12 education investment.

Seniors (65+): 19.3% – indicative of growing demand for healthcare, assisted living, and heat-related public health initiatives.

Largest Cohort: Ages 25–29 (~501,000 people), reflecting a young working population.

⚖️ 4. Gender and Race

Gender Split: 50.08% female, 49.92% male – a near-even ratio.

Racial Composition:

• White: 66.67%
• Two or more races: 13.41%
• Hispanic/Other: 7.66%
• Black: 4.56%
• Native American: 4.15%
• Asian: 3.36%

Increasing diversity is shaping cultural, educational, and political dynamics, with a notable rise in multiracial identification.

🏠 5. Housing Market Performance

Metric: Value (YoY Change)

Median Sale Price: $451,100 (+4.6%)

Homes Sold: 7,390 (+16.7%)

Inventory Growth: +23.1%

Median Days on Market: 63 Days

Insight: Arizona is entering a stabilized growth phase. With strong buyer demand and increasing supply, home affordability is improving gradually – a trend worth monitoring amid shifting interest rates.

💼 6. Labor Market Trends

Arizona added 516,600 jobs since April 2020, fully recovering from pandemic losses.

Month: Unemployment Rate – Labor Force (K)

Jul 2024: 3.4%, 3,758.3

Dec 2024: 3.8%, 3,744.1

Trend: Slight softening in the labor market. Employment is plateauing, but Arizona still outpaces national averages in several industries, especially manufacturing and services.

🎓 7. Education Outlook

High School Grad Rate: 77.3% (vs. U.S. avg. 86.6%)

County Extremes:

Greenlee: 94.0%

Pima: 71.2%

College Degree Holders: Steadily rising, with Tucson showing 35% attainment rate for bachelor’s degrees.

Emphasis on STEM education and flexible online programs is helping Arizona adapt to 21st-century workforce needs.

🚦 8. Migration & Economic Impact

Migration remains a primary growth driver. Arizona added 58,400 new housing units, 14,000 of which are multifamily—affordable options for migrants and young professionals.

Indicator: 2025 Forecast

• GDP Growth: 2.8% (above national)
• Employment Growth: Moderate but positive
• House Price Increase: +2.0%
• New Housing Units: 58,400
• Unemployment Rate: Slightly rising, still < national average

🏛️ 9. Policy Implications & Urban Strategy

Zoning Reforms: Critical to controlling urban sprawl; higher-density planning is key.

Green Urbanism: Balancing real estate growth with preservation of green spaces and sustainability.

Infrastructure Needs:

• Public transport (light rail, buses)
• EV infrastructure
• Road maintenance in fast-growing metros

Governor Hobbs' Efficiency Arizona initiative highlights a climate-adaptive policy aimed at vulnerable populations (especially seniors), tackling extreme heat risks through subsidized cooling solutions.

🧩 Conclusion: Strategic Outlook

Arizona's demographic trajectory paints a picture of a resilient, opportunity-rich state. While signs of labor and job growth moderation exist, the long-term fundamentals—population inflow, diverse workforce, real estate momentum, and smart urban policy—support